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Politics

Flávio Bolsonaro arrested before 2027?

Ends · 24h vol $4.9K · liquidity $16.8K
Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢
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Price

FROG CHECK

Spread3.3¢bid 0.9¢ / ask 4.2¢
Taker fee$0.00fees off on this market · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 20 shquotes within 6.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $500 · reward $5
Liquidity$16.8K24h vol $4.9K

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$1001,2927.7¢+3.54¢$0.00fills
$1,0002,54939¢+35.03¢$0.00fills
$10,00013,82772¢+68.12¢$0.00fills

Order book Yes · latest

7.8¢15
7.7¢222
7.6¢10
6¢25
4.5¢40
4.4¢14
4.2¢7
spread 3.3¢ · mid 2.6¢
0.9¢8
0.8¢10
0.7¢30
0.6¢5
0.5¢16
0.4¢234
0.3¢377

Market read

Yes is 2.5¢. No is 97.5¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes2.5¢Trade on Polymarket
No97.5¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge's decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as he is held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: - Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) - Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant - Being formally booked or processed following detention - Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station - Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with his attorney - Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention: - An arrest warrant being issued but not executed - Being questioned or interviewed without arrest - Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

UMA status: no proposal.

Related markets

This event has one listed market.

Big trades here sizes only

No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.