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Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q4 2026

Ends · 24h vol $243 · liquidity $169
Yes 27¢No 73¢
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Price Yes

Price history is unavailable for this market right now.

FROG CHECK

Spread18.0¢bid 19¢ / ask 37¢
Taker fee$1.32on $100 · tech rate 0.04 · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 20 shquotes within 6.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $500 · reward $5
Liquidity$16924h vol $243

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$10015863¢+26.33¢$1.32fills
$1,0001,09391.5¢+54.48¢$2.67fills
$10,0003,94396.6¢+59.64¢$4.21partial

Order book Yes · latest

73¢40
72¢25
56¢20
47¢8
44¢8
42¢6
37¢20
spread 18.0¢ · mid 28¢
19¢30
18¢50
17¢23
16¢11
14¢32
13¢5
12¢103

Market read

Yes is 27¢. No is 73¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes27¢Trade on Polymarket
No73¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Resolution source: https://ir.tesla.com/press

UMA status: no proposal.

Related markets

Big trades here sizes only

No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.