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Geopolitics

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?

Ends · 24h vol $7.7K · liquidity $21.6K
Yes 13¢No 88¢
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Price Yes

Price history is unavailable for this market right now.

FROG CHECK

Spread1.0¢bid 12¢ / ask 13¢
Taker fee$0.00fees off on this market · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 20 shquotes within 6.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $500 · reward $3.5
Liquidity$21.6K24h vol $7.7K

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$10056818¢+4.61¢$0.00fills
$1,0002,66638¢+24.50¢$0.00fills
$10,00019,00453¢+39.62¢$0.00fills

Order book Yes · latest

29¢20
27¢5
23¢200
18¢81
15¢122
14¢176
13¢9
spread 1.0¢ · mid 13¢
12¢425
11¢132
10¢261
9¢1,819
8¢503
7¢4,189
6¢8,680

Market read

Yes is 13¢. No is 88¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes13¢Trade on Polymarket
No88¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The East-West oil pipeline refers to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline (also known as Petroline), which carries crude oil from Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, including its pumping stations. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that impacts the East-West oil pipeline. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on the East-West oil pipeline do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact the East-West oil pipeline if it directly impacts the pipeline or any of its pumping stations. The occurrence and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Riyadh Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia and a consensus of credible reporting.

UMA status: no proposal.

Related markets

Big trades here sizes only

No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.