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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?

Ends · 24h vol $389 · liquidity $1.0K
Yes 46¢No 54¢
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Price Yes

Price history is unavailable for this market right now.

FROG CHECK

Spread1.0¢bid 45¢ / ask 46¢
Taker fee$0.00fees off on this market · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 20 shquotes within 6.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $500 · reward $5
Liquidity$1.0K24h vol $389

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$10021347¢+0.93¢$0.00fills
$1,0001,42970¢+23.96¢$0.00fills
$10,0002,49879¢+32.70¢$0.00partial

Order book Yes · latest

68¢200
58¢150
56¢18
49¢68
48¢60
47¢149
46¢40
spread 1.0¢ · mid 46¢
45¢74
44¢119
43¢89
42¢228
25¢220
24¢33
15¢220

Market read

Yes is 46¢. No is 54¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes46¢Trade on Polymarket
No54¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

UMA status: no proposal.

Related markets

Big trades here sizes only

No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.