PolyFrogPOLYFROG.
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GeopoliticsResolved

Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 19-October 25?

Ends · 24h vol $299 · liquidity $10.1K
Yes 98.8¢No 1.2¢
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Price Yes

Price history is unavailable for this market right now.

FROG CHECK

Spread1.7¢bid 98¢ / ask 99.7¢
Taker fee$0.00fees off on this market · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 20 shquotes within 8.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $500 · reward $5
Liquidity$10.1K24h vol $299

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$10010099.7¢+0.03¢$0.00fills
$1,00052799.9¢+0.16¢$0.00partial
$10,00052799.9¢+0.16¢$0.00partial

Order book Yes · latest

99.9¢380
99.8¢77
99.7¢70
spread 1.7¢ · mid 98.8¢
98¢1
90¢13
90¢9
80¢20
80¢35
80¢20
64¢20

Market read

Yes is 98.8¢. No is 1.2¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes98.8¢Trade on Polymarket
No1.2¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Resolution source: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c

UMA status: no proposal.

Related markets

Big trades here sizes only

No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.