PolyFrogPOLYFROG.
Alerts
Tech

Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?

Ends · 24h vol $187 · liquidity $5.8K
Yes 12¢No 88¢
Trade on PolymarketShare cardGet alerts on Telegram

Price Yes

Price history is unavailable for this market right now.

FROG CHECK

Spread2.0¢bid 11¢ / ask 13¢
Taker fee$3.46on $100 · tech rate 0.04 · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 50 shquotes within 4.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $500 · reward $5
Liquidity$5.8K24h vol $187

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$10074213¢+0.48¢$3.46fills
$1,0005,63418¢+4.75¢$32.36fills
$10,0008,08238¢+24.77¢$43.40partial

Order book Yes · latest

19¢55
18¢1,730
17¢389
16¢357
15¢255
14¢1,372
13¢382
spread 2.0¢ · mid 12¢
11¢4,142
10¢1,276
9¢2,168
8¢5
7¢219
6¢172
5¢20

Market read

Yes is 12¢. No is 88¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes12¢Trade on Polymarket
No88¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/

UMA status: no proposal.

Related markets

Big trades here sizes only

No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.