Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Price
FROG CHECK
Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)
Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.
| Spend | Shares | Avg price | Slippage | Est. taker fee | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 4,115 | 2.4¢ | +0.03¢ | $0.00 | fills |
| $1,000 | 36,381 | 2.7¢ | +0.35¢ | $0.00 | fills |
| $10,000 | 210,427 | 4.8¢ | +2.35¢ | $0.00 | fills |
Order book Yes · latest
Market read
Yes is 2.3¢. No is 97.7¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.
| Outcome | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.3¢ | Trade on Polymarket |
| No | 97.7¢ | Trade on Polymarket |
Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Related markets
This event has one listed market.
Big trades here sizes only
No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.