PolyFrogPOLYFROG.
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Tech

Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?

Ends · 24h vol $1.9K · liquidity $6.7K
Yes 18¢No 82¢
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Price Yes

Price history is unavailable for this market right now.

FROG CHECK

Spread1.6¢bid 18¢ / ask 19¢
Taker fee$3.22on $100 · tech rate 0.04 · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 20 shquotes within 4.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $500 · reward $5
Liquidity$6.7K24h vol $1.9K

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$10051120¢+0.37¢$3.22fills
$1,0004,40523¢+3.50¢$30.80fills
$10,00016,21862¢+42.46¢$74.27fills

Order book Yes · latest

20¢519
20¢17
20¢20
20¢20
19¢20
19¢20
19¢147
spread 1.6¢ · mid 18¢
18¢430
17¢40
17¢26
17¢30
17¢51
16¢123
16¢40

Market read

Yes is 18¢. No is 82¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes18¢Trade on Polymarket
No82¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime. Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun. This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

UMA status: no proposal.

Related markets

Big trades here sizes only

No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.