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Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Ends · 24h vol $2.9K · liquidity $10.2K
Yes 17¢No 83¢
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Price Yes

Price history is unavailable for this market right now.

FROG CHECK

Spread1.5¢bid 16¢ / ask 18¢
Taker fee$3.27on $100 · tech rate 0.04 · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 200 shquotes within 4.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $500 · reward $5
Liquidity$10.2K24h vol $2.9K

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$10054618¢+0.40¢$3.27fills
$1,0005,28819¢+1.01¢$32.43fills
$10,00017,75156¢+38.44¢$82.28fills

Order book Yes · latest

19¢620
19¢480
19¢663
19¢154
18¢12
18¢200
18¢30
spread 1.5¢ · mid 17¢
16¢6
16¢200
16¢22
16¢200
16¢207
16¢209
16¢1,250

Market read

Yes is 17¢. No is 83¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes17¢Trade on Polymarket
No83¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/

UMA status: no proposal.

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No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.