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Economics

Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?

Ends · 24h vol $4.4K · liquidity $10.1K
Yes 23¢No 77¢
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Price

FROG CHECK

Spread1.4¢bid 22¢ / ask 23¢
Taker fee$3.04on $100 · finance rate 0.04 · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 100 shquotes within 4.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $500 · reward $5
Liquidity$10.1K24h vol $4.4K

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$10041724¢+0.57¢$3.04fills
$1,0004,05525¢+1.26¢$30.13fills
$10,00019,41751¢+28.10¢$140.14fills

Order book Yes · latest

25¢290
24¢440
24¢1,011
24¢1,007
24¢8
24¢100
23¢30
spread 1.4¢ · mid 23¢
22¢10
21¢106
21¢16
21¢872
21¢210
20¢101
19¢16

Market read

Yes is 23¢. No is 77¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes23¢Trade on Polymarket
No77¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

UMA status: no proposal.

Related markets

Big trades here sizes only

No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.