Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
Price Yes
Price history is unavailable for this market right now.
FROG CHECK
Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)
Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.
| Spend | Shares | Avg price | Slippage | Est. taker fee | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 2,114 | 4.7¢ | +0.83¢ | $0.00 | fills |
| $1,000 | 17,798 | 5.6¢ | +1.72¢ | $0.00 | fills |
| $10,000 | 38,323 | 26¢ | +22.19¢ | $0.00 | fills |
Order book Yes · latest
Market read
Yes is 3.5¢. No is 96.5¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.
| Outcome | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.5¢ | Trade on Polymarket |
| No | 96.5¢ | Trade on Polymarket |
Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Related markets
Big trades here sizes only
No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.