Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?
Price Yes
Price history is unavailable for this market right now.
FROG CHECK
Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)
Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.
| Spend | Shares | Avg price | Slippage | Est. taker fee | Book |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 295 | 34¢ | +0.92¢ | $2.64 | fills |
| $1,000 | 1,716 | 58¢ | +25.26¢ | $13.47 | fills |
| $10,000 | 1,986 | 62¢ | +28.88¢ | $14.80 | partial |
Order book Yes · latest
Market read
Yes is 32¢. No is 68¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.
| Outcome | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 32¢ | Trade on Polymarket |
| No | 68¢ | Trade on Polymarket |
Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Resolution source: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026
Related markets
Big trades here sizes only
No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.