PolyFrogPOLYFROG.
Alerts
Weather

Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?

Ends · 24h vol $2.2K · liquidity $858
Yes 62¢No 38¢
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Price Yes

Price history is unavailable for this market right now.

FROG CHECK

Spread2.0¢bid 61¢ / ask 63¢
Taker fee$1.85on $100 · weather rate 0.05 · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 20 shquotes within 4.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $250 · reward $0.6
Liquidity$85824h vol $2.2K

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$10015963¢+0.00¢$1.85fills
$1,0001,43470¢+6.74¢$14.84fills
$10,0003,72282¢+19.44¢$24.61partial

Order book Yes · latest

76¢260
70¢260
69¢75
68¢8
67¢35
66¢425
63¢260
spread 2.0¢ · mid 62¢
61¢140
60¢20
57¢25
21¢117
20¢5
16¢22
15¢666

Market read

Yes is 62¢. No is 38¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes62¢Trade on Polymarket
No38¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 26, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Resolution source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

UMA status: no proposal.

Related markets

Big trades here sizes only

No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.