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Geopolitics

Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

Ends · 24h vol $18.5K · liquidity $42.9K
Yes 66¢No 35¢
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Price Yes

Price history is unavailable for this market right now.

FROG CHECK

Spread3.0¢bid 64¢ / ask 67¢
Taker fee$0.00fees off on this market · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 50 shquotes within 4.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $500 · reward $5
Liquidity$42.9K24h vol $18.5K

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$10014967¢+0.19¢$0.00fills
$1,0001,45169¢+1.92¢$0.00fills
$10,00013,11476¢+9.25¢$0.00fills

Order book Yes · latest

73¢21
72¢4,890
71¢1,100
70¢1,137
69¢50
68¢576
67¢120
spread 3.0¢ · mid 66¢
64¢205
63¢535
62¢944
61¢82
60¢224
57¢118
56¢16

Market read

Yes is 66¢. No is 35¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes66¢Trade on Polymarket
No35¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

Resolution source: IMF PortWatch

UMA status: no proposal.

Related markets

Big trades here sizes only

No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.