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Geopolitics

Will there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in November 2026?

Ends · 24h vol $115 · liquidity $8.2K
Yes 19¢No 81¢
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Price

FROG CHECK

Spread23.0¢bid 9¢ / ask 32¢
Taker fee$0.00fees off on this market · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 50 shquotes within 8.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $500 · reward $5
Liquidity$8.2K24h vol $115

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$10027736¢+4.11¢$0.00fills
$1,0001,39072¢+39.96¢$0.00fills
$10,00011,47287¢+55.17¢$0.00fills

Order book Yes · latest

39¢60
38¢50
37¢26
36¢20
35¢30
33¢75
32¢11
spread 23.0¢ · mid 21¢
9¢119
7¢30
5¢70
2¢16
1¢55

Market read

Yes is 19¢. No is 81¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes19¢Trade on Polymarket
No81¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during November 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

UMA status: no proposal.

Related markets

Big trades here sizes only

No large prints for this market in the latest refresh.