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Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?

Ends · 24h vol $1.5K · liquidity $3.3K
Yes 17¢No 83¢
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Price

FROG CHECK

Spread2.0¢bid 16¢ / ask 18¢
Taker fee$3.22on $100 · tech rate 0.04 · makers $0
Maker rewardsMin 20 shquotes within 4.5¢ of mid qualify
DisputeNo proposalUMA bond $500 · reward $5
Liquidity$3.3K24h vol $1.5K

Cost to fill (buy Yes, walking the live ask book)

Swipe for slippage, fee, and whether the book fills.

SpendSharesAvg priceSlippageEst. taker feeBook
$10051320¢+1.51¢$3.22fills
$1,0002,85335¢+17.06¢$23.43fills
$10,0008,26974¢+55.85¢$34.10partial

Order book Yes · latest

24¢48
23¢25
22¢74
21¢289
20¢144
19¢220
18¢60
spread 2.0¢ · mid 17¢
16¢9
15¢120
14¢195
13¢5,008
12¢129
11¢939
10¢5

Market read

Yes is 17¢. No is 83¢. No large print for this market is in the latest refresh. How it resolves is in the rules text below, from Polymarket.

OutcomePrice
Yes17¢Trade on Polymarket
No83¢Trade on Polymarket

Both links open this event. PolyFrog does not send a separate outcome order.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the number of distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Each qualifying problem is counted once, regardless of how many eligible AI labs announce a solution to it or how many announcements are made. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source: https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/

UMA status: no proposal.

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